On This Day Pre-Y2K

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April 28, 1999 Permalink

I do think that the chances of a total meltdown are less now than they were 1 year ago. My family has been preparing for the worst and I don’t regret that one bit. One can only react to the information one has at the present time. Why regret having to change one’s outlook based on new information?

But I do still think there’s a less-than-trivial chance of things going Infomagic; it’s just that my estimation of that chance has decreased. Some months ago I fully expected it to be “lights out” nationwide with the attendant catastrophe and I think that based on the evidence at hand that was a very reasonable outlook, no apologies to those who were Pollys back then. Now it appears that there’s less chance of that. Good. Great!!!

That being said, I still agree 100% with Ed Yourdon that we’re probably facing “one year of disruptions, ten years of depression.” That’s still pretty much my best case. Not so good. And well worth some serious preparations. Will that destabilize our population or global dynamics enough to trigger war and hence a slide into Infomagic? Possibly. Again, well worth preparing for.

IMO we live in the most dangerous times since the Cuban Missile Crisis. I have seen people on this forum scoff at those who built bomb shelters back then. Balderdash! Those people were prudent. So what if they were wrong? They acted reasonably in the face of what we know now was an greater threat than even they imagined at the time. So it is now.

With all my preparations, I just hope I don’t have the last laugh.

—Tom Benjamin, comp.software.year-2000, 04/28/99

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